4 matches are on Thursday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Felix Auger Aliassime against Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16. Our calls: Aliassime over Tiafoe, Paul over Cobolli, Musetti over Faria, Fritz over Oconnell.
Pick: Aliassime
Win probability: 60% Aliassime · Market: -187 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Felix Auger Aliassime and Frances Tiafoe meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Thursday. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Tiafoe's 72.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Aliassime — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 69% Musetti · Market: -246 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Jaime Faria and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Thursday. Lorenzo Musetti has won 7 of the last 10. Jaime Faria brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 69%. Faria comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 79% Fritz · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (55%)
Christopher Oconnell and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Thursday. Taylor Fritz has won 8 of the last 10. Christopher Oconnell has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Fritz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 57% Paul · Market: -143 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Flavio Cobolli and Tommy Paul meet in the quarterfinal at Cincinnati on Thursday. Tommy Paul is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Flavio Cobolli has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Paul comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paul is exactly that — a lean.
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