✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Linda Noskova at 67% before the match, and Linda Noskova won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Noskova
Win probability: 67% Noskova · Market: -361 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lanlana Tararudee goes up against Linda Noskova in the US Open round of 64. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Lanlana Tararudee has won 7 of the last 10.
Linda Noskova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Noskova around 67%. The edge belongs to Noskova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iga Swiatek was our 85% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 85% Swiatek · Market: -1787 · We call it in 2 sets (77%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (67%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Nadia Podoroska in the US Open round of 64. Iga Swiatek is 9-1 across recent matches. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Mirra Andreeva at 77% before the match, and Mirra Andreeva won 6-0 6-2.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 77% Andreeva · Market: -735 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (57%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Eva Lys goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the US Open round of 64. Mirra Andreeva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Eva Lys is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Andreeva has been winning 63.5% of first-serve points to Lys's 58.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Andreeva plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Madison Keys at 74% before the match, and Madison Keys won 5-7 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 74% Keys · Market: -675 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Anna Bondar and Madison Keys meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Madison Keys comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anna Bondar limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Madison Keys simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Keys win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marie Bouzkova at 73% before the match, and Marie Bouzkova won 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 73% Bouzkova · Market: -438 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
Harriet Dart and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Harriet Dart comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Marie Bouzkova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Dart needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Amanda Anisimova at 72% before the match, and Amanda Anisimova won 6-3 3-6 6-1.
Pick: Anisimova
Win probability: 72% Anisimova · Market: -379 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Amanda Anisimova against Lilli Tagger on hard. Amanda Anisimova has won 7 of the last 10. Lilli Tagger comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Amanda Anisimova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Anisimova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 72% on Alexandra Eala, who won 6-1 6-4.
Pick: Eala
Win probability: 72% Eala · Market: -761 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)
Alexandra Eala and Oleksandra Oliynykova meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Alexandra Eala limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Eala should have enough here, though Oliynykova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 71% on Anastasia Potapova, who won 6-4 2-6 6-3.
Pick: Potapova
Win probability: 71% Potapova · Market: -298 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Anastasia Potapova and Leolia Jeanjean meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Anastasia Potapova is 5-5 across recent matches. Leolia Jeanjean has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Anastasia Potapova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Potapova around 71%. Potapova should have enough here, though Jeanjean has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Naomi Osaka was our 68% pick, and won 6-2 5-7 6-1.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 68% Osaka · Market: -309 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Katerina Siniakova goes up against Naomi Osaka in the US Open round of 64. Naomi Osaka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Katerina Siniakova has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 70.9% of first-serve points to Siniakova's 61.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Elise Mertens, who won 6-2 7-6.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 68% Mertens · Market: -262 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)
Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Elise Mertens against Maria Timofeeva on hard. Elise Mertens has won 6 of the last 10. Maria Timofeeva is 8-2 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.4% versus 59.6% on first-serve points in Mertens's favor. The edge belongs to Mertens — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Maria Sakkari at 67%, but Yuliia Starodubtseva won 1-6 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 67% Sakkari · Market: -142 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Maria Sakkari and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Maria Sakkari has won 4 of the last 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva has won 3 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Sakkari has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Starodubtseva's 57.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakkari.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Qinwen Zheng at 65% before the match, and Qinwen Zheng won 6-4 2-6 6-1.
Pick: Zheng
Win probability: 65% Zheng · Market: -243 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Qinwen Zheng goes up against Yulia Putintseva in the US Open round of 64. Qinwen Zheng is 4-6 across recent matches. Yulia Putintseva is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 60% on first-serve points in Zheng's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zheng.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Cristina Bucsa at 55% before the match, and Cristina Bucsa won 7-6 6-7 7-6.
Pick: Bucsa
Win probability: 55% Bucsa · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Cristina Bucsa and Himeno Sakatsume meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Cristina Bucsa has won 3 of the last 10. Himeno Sakatsume has won 5 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bucsa is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Coco Gauff was our 73% pick, and won 6-4 7-6(5).
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 73% Gauff · Market: -544 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Coco Gauff against Paula Badosa on hard. Coco Gauff brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Paula Badosa is 9-1 across recent matches.
Coco Gauff is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gauff around 73%. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Gauff win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Elina Svitolina was our 79% pick, and won 6-2 6-7 6-4.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 79% Svitolina · Market: -603 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (58%)
Elina Svitolina and Maya Joint meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Elina Svitolina is 7-3 across recent matches. Maya Joint comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Svitolina has been winning 63.4% of first-serve points to Joint's 60%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Svitolina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iva Jovic was our 69% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 69% Jovic · Market: -531 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Francesca Jones and Iva Jovic meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Francesca Jones brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Jones comes in off a compressed schedule; Jovic comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Jovic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Nikola Bartunkova at 68% before the match, and Nikola Bartunkova won 6-7 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 68% Bartunkova · Market: -233 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Nikola Bartunkova and Tatjana Maria meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Nikola Bartunkova has won 7 of the last 10. Tatjana Maria comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.5% versus 65.5% on first-serve points in Bartunkova's favor. Bartunkova comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. Bartunkova should have enough here, though Maria has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.