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US Open Predictions & Picks — September 3, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · September 3, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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17 matches are on Thursday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Qinwen Zheng against Yulia Putintseva in the round of 64. Our calls: Zheng over Putintseva, Gauff over Badosa, Osaka over Siniakova, Noskova over Tararudee, Anisimova over Tagger, Mertens over Timofeeva, and 11 more.

Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Linda Noskova at 67% before the match, and Linda Noskova won 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Noskova

Win probability: 67% Noskova · Market: -361 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lanlana Tararudee goes up against Linda Noskova in the US Open round of 64. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Lanlana Tararudee has won 7 of the last 10.

Linda Noskova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Noskova around 67%. The edge belongs to Noskova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iga Swiatek was our 85% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Swiatek

Win probability: 85% Swiatek · Market: -1787 · We call it in 2 sets (77%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (67%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Nadia Podoroska in the US Open round of 64. Iga Swiatek is 9-1 across recent matches. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Eva Lys vs Mirra Andreeva

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Mirra Andreeva at 77% before the match, and Mirra Andreeva won 6-0 6-2.

Pick: Andreeva

Win probability: 77% Andreeva · Market: -735 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (57%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Eva Lys goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the US Open round of 64. Mirra Andreeva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Eva Lys is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).

The serve is where this match separates: Andreeva has been winning 63.5% of first-serve points to Lys's 58.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Andreeva plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Anna Bondar vs Madison Keys

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Madison Keys at 74% before the match, and Madison Keys won 5-7 6-4 7-6.

Pick: Keys

Win probability: 74% Keys · Market: -675 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)

Anna Bondar and Madison Keys meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Madison Keys comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anna Bondar limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

Madison Keys simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Keys win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Harriet Dart vs Marie Bouzkova

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marie Bouzkova at 73% before the match, and Marie Bouzkova won 6-2 6-2.

Pick: Bouzkova

Win probability: 73% Bouzkova · Market: -438 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)

Harriet Dart and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Harriet Dart comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Marie Bouzkova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Dart needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Amanda Anisimova vs Lilli Tagger

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Amanda Anisimova at 72% before the match, and Amanda Anisimova won 6-3 3-6 6-1.

Pick: Anisimova

Win probability: 72% Anisimova · Market: -379 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Amanda Anisimova against Lilli Tagger on hard. Amanda Anisimova has won 7 of the last 10. Lilli Tagger comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Amanda Anisimova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Anisimova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 72% on Alexandra Eala, who won 6-1 6-4.

Pick: Eala

Win probability: 72% Eala · Market: -761 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)

Alexandra Eala and Oleksandra Oliynykova meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Alexandra Eala limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Eala should have enough here, though Oliynykova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Anastasia Potapova vs Leolia Jeanjean

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 71% on Anastasia Potapova, who won 6-4 2-6 6-3.

Pick: Potapova

Win probability: 71% Potapova · Market: -298 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)

Anastasia Potapova and Leolia Jeanjean meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Anastasia Potapova is 5-5 across recent matches. Leolia Jeanjean has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

Anastasia Potapova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Potapova around 71%. Potapova should have enough here, though Jeanjean has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Katerina Siniakova vs Naomi Osaka

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Naomi Osaka was our 68% pick, and won 6-2 5-7 6-1.

Pick: Osaka

Win probability: 68% Osaka · Market: -309 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Katerina Siniakova goes up against Naomi Osaka in the US Open round of 64. Naomi Osaka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Katerina Siniakova has won 5 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 70.9% of first-serve points to Siniakova's 61.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Elise Mertens vs Maria Timofeeva

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Elise Mertens, who won 6-2 7-6.

Pick: Mertens

Win probability: 68% Mertens · Market: -262 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Elise Mertens against Maria Timofeeva on hard. Elise Mertens has won 6 of the last 10. Maria Timofeeva is 8-2 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 63.4% versus 59.6% on first-serve points in Mertens's favor. The edge belongs to Mertens — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Maria Sakkari vs Yuliia Starodubtseva

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Maria Sakkari at 67%, but Yuliia Starodubtseva won 1-6 7-6 6-2.

Pick: Sakkari

Win probability: 67% Sakkari · Market: -142 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)

Maria Sakkari and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Maria Sakkari has won 4 of the last 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva has won 3 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Sakkari has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Starodubtseva's 57.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakkari.

Qinwen Zheng vs Yulia Putintseva

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Qinwen Zheng at 65% before the match, and Qinwen Zheng won 6-4 2-6 6-1.

Pick: Zheng

Win probability: 65% Zheng · Market: -243 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Qinwen Zheng goes up against Yulia Putintseva in the US Open round of 64. Qinwen Zheng is 4-6 across recent matches. Yulia Putintseva is 5-5 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 60% on first-serve points in Zheng's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zheng.

Cristina Bucsa vs Himeno Sakatsume

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Cristina Bucsa at 55% before the match, and Cristina Bucsa won 7-6 6-7 7-6.

Pick: Bucsa

Win probability: 55% Bucsa · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)

Cristina Bucsa and Himeno Sakatsume meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Cristina Bucsa has won 3 of the last 10. Himeno Sakatsume has won 5 of the last 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bucsa is exactly that — a lean.

Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Coco Gauff was our 73% pick, and won 6-4 7-6(5).

Pick: Gauff

Win probability: 73% Gauff · Market: -544 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Coco Gauff against Paula Badosa on hard. Coco Gauff brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Paula Badosa is 9-1 across recent matches.

Coco Gauff is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gauff around 73%. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Gauff win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Elina Svitolina vs Maya Joint

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Elina Svitolina was our 79% pick, and won 6-2 6-7 6-4.

Pick: Svitolina

Win probability: 79% Svitolina · Market: -603 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (58%)

Elina Svitolina and Maya Joint meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Elina Svitolina is 7-3 across recent matches. Maya Joint comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Svitolina has been winning 63.4% of first-serve points to Joint's 60%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Svitolina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Francesca Jones vs Iva Jovic

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iva Jovic was our 69% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Jovic

Win probability: 69% Jovic · Market: -531 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)

Francesca Jones and Iva Jovic meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Francesca Jones brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Jones comes in off a compressed schedule; Jovic comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Jovic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Nikola Bartunkova vs Tatjana Maria

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Nikola Bartunkova at 68% before the match, and Nikola Bartunkova won 6-7 6-2 6-3.

Pick: Bartunkova

Win probability: 68% Bartunkova · Market: -233 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)

Nikola Bartunkova and Tatjana Maria meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Nikola Bartunkova has won 7 of the last 10. Tatjana Maria comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 68.5% versus 65.5% on first-serve points in Bartunkova's favor. Bartunkova comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. Bartunkova should have enough here, though Maria has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

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Updated Sep 2, 2026, 1:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.