6 matches are on Sunday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16. Our calls: Medvedev over Tiafoe, Mensik over Tien, Alcaraz over Paul, Shelton over Tsitsipas, Michelsen over Etcheverry, Zverev over Tabilo.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 73% Zverev · Market: -446 · Sets: 4+ (51%) · most likely score 3-0 (41%)
Alejandro Tabilo and Alexander Zverev meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Sunday. Alexander Zverev has won 7 of the last 10. Alejandro Tabilo has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tabilo needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 51% Mensik · Market: +117 · Sets: 4+ (71%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
Sunday's US Open round of 32 pits Jakub Mensik against Learner Tien on hard. Jakub Mensik has won 7 of the last 10. Learner Tien comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Mensik has been winning 76.7% of first-serve points to Tien's 68%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mensik is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 72% Alcaraz · Market: -416 · Sets: 4+ (52%) · most likely score 3-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Tommy Paul in the US Open round of 16. Carlos Alcaraz brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Tommy Paul brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Alcaraz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 67% Shelton · Market: -217 · Sets: 4+ (59%) · most likely score 3-0 (31%)
Sunday's US Open round of 16 pits Ben Shelton against Stefanos Tsitsipas on hard. Ben Shelton comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 67%. Shelton should have enough here, though Tsitsipas has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 63% Michelsen · Market: -255 · Sets: 4+ (60%) · most likely score 3-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the US Open round of 16. Alex Michelsen is 7-3 across recent matches. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Michelsen.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 52% Medvedev · Market: -141 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-0 (19%)
Sunday's US Open round of 16 pits Daniil Medvedev against Frances Tiafoe on hard. Daniil Medvedev brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Medvedev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.