5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Novak Djokovic against Nuno Borges in the round of 32. Our calls: Djokovic over Borges, Aliassime over Khachanov, Bu over Cerundolo, Tirante over Struff, Gea over Zhang.
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 66% Djokovic · Market: -246 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Novak Djokovic and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Nuno Borges comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Novak Djokovic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Djokovic should have enough here, though Borges has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 60% Tirante · Market: -154 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jan Lennard Struff goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Beijing round of 32. Thiago Agustin Tirante is 7-3 across recent matches. Jan Lennard Struff is 5-5 across recent matches.
Thiago Agustin Tirante is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tirante around 60%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tirante is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Aliassime
Win probability: 59% Aliassime · Market: -141 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Wednesday's Beijing round of 32 pits Felix Auger Aliassime against Karen Khachanov on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Karen Khachanov comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Khachanov's 72%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aliassime fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Bu
Win probability: 50% Bu · Market: -144 · We call it in 3 sets (55%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
Wednesday's Beijing round of 32 pits Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Y. Bu on hard. Y. Bu comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won 5 of the last 10.
Bu's 71.7% behind the first serve (against 67.4% for Cerundolo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Bu gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Gea
Win probability: 75% Gea · Market: -368 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Wednesday's Beijing round of 32 pits Arthur Gea against Zhizhen Zhang on hard. Arthur Gea is 8-2 across recent matches. Zhizhen Zhang limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Arthur Gea is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gea around 75%. Anything other than a Gea win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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