Beijing Predictions & Picks — October 1, 2026

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Beijing round of 32. Alexander Zverev comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Cameron Norrie limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Zverev has been winning 73.7% of first-serve points to Norrie's 68.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Zverev should have enough here, though Norrie has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Mariano Navone in the Beijing round of 32. Alex De Minaur is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Mariano Navone is 5-5 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Minaur has been winning 69% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.

Thursday's Beijing round of 32 pits Andrey Rublev against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Andrey Rublev is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Tallon Griekspoor comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rublev fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Beijing round of 32 pits Alex Molcan against Arthur Rinderknech on hard. Arthur Rinderknech is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Alex Molcan has won 5 of the last 10.

Rinderknech's 75.3% behind the first serve (against 65.5% for Molcan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rinderknech is exactly that — a lean.

Thursday's Beijing round of 32 pits Flavio Cobolli against Roman Safiullin on hard. Flavio Cobolli limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Roman Safiullin is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Cobolli gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Beijing round of 32 pits Alexander Bublik against Jakub Mensik on hard. Jakub Mensik has won 5 of the last 10. Alexander Bublik has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Mensik gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Hubert Hurkacz goes up against Learner Tien in the Beijing round of 32. Learner Tien is 6-4 across recent matches. Hubert Hurkacz has won 4 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tien is exactly that — a lean.

Botic Van De Zandschulp and Francisco Cerundolo meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Thursday. Francisco Cerundolo is 5-5 across recent matches. Botic Van De Zandschulp is 7-3 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Francisco Cerundolo, 4-0 across their 4 meetings with Botic Van De Zandschulp. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Cerundolo gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Juncheng Shang and Sebastian Baez meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Thursday. Sebastian Baez is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Juncheng Shang has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Sebastian Baez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Baez around 53%. Little separates them; Baez gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Beijing round of 32 pits Ignacio Buse against Quentin Halys on hard. Quentin Halys has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Ignacio Buse is 7-3 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Halys has been winning 77.4% of first-serve points to Buse's 68.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Halys is exactly that — a lean.