8 matches are on Sunday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Frances Tiafoe in the round of 32. Our calls: Tiafoe over Fokina, Shelton over Gea, Mensik over Cerundolo, Nakashima over Bublik, Zverev over Halys, Minaur over Sakamoto, and 2 more.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 83% Hurkacz · Market: -519 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Sunday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Hubert Hurkacz against Yi Zhou on hard. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Yi Zhou has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Hurkacz has been winning 75.9% of first-serve points to Zhou's 71.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Hurkacz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 72% Minaur · Market: -219 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Rei Sakamoto in the Shanghai round of 32. Alex De Minaur has won 6 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Rei Sakamoto comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Alex De Minaur is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Minaur around 72%. The edge belongs to Minaur — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 66% Shelton · Market: -239 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Arthur Gea and Ben Shelton meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Sunday. Ben Shelton has won 7 of the last 10. Arthur Gea has won 8 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Shelton has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Gea's 67.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Shelton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Khachanov
Win probability: 64% Khachanov · Market: -277 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Sunday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Adrian Mannarino against Karen Khachanov on hard. Karen Khachanov has won 7 of the last 10. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Karen Khachanov is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Khachanov around 64%. Khachanov should have enough here, though Mannarino has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 58% Nakashima · Market: -119 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Brandon Nakashima in the Shanghai round of 32. Brandon Nakashima has won 7 of the last 10. Alexander Bublik has won 6 of the last 10.
Brandon Nakashima simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Nakashima is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 55% Mensik · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Francisco Cerundolo and Jakub Mensik meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Sunday. Jakub Mensik is 5-5 across recent matches. Francisco Cerundolo is 7-3 across recent matches.
Mensik's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 67.6% for Cerundolo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mensik is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 80% Zverev · Market: -522 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Alexander Zverev and Quentin Halys meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Sunday. Alexander Zverev comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Quentin Halys has won 4 of the last 10.
Alexander Zverev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Halys needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 53% Tiafoe · Market: -101 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Frances Tiafoe meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Sunday. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Tiafoe's 72.1% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Fokina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tiafoe is exactly that — a lean.
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