8 matches are on Monday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jiri Lehecka against Rafael Jodar in the round of 32. Our calls: Lehecka over Jodar, Paul over Vacherot, Ruud over Tien, Fritz over Tsitsipas, Fils over Zandschulp, Alcaraz over Bergs, and 2 more.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 85% Alcaraz · Market: -870 · We call it in 2 sets (70%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (63%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai round of 32. Carlos Alcaraz has won 6 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Zizou Bergs comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Carlos Alcaraz is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Alcaraz around 85%. Anything other than a Alcaraz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 80% Medvedev · Market: -558 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Dalibor Svrcina goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Shanghai round of 32. Daniil Medvedev brings a 8-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Dalibor Svrcina has won 4 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Svrcina's 62.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Medvedev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Aliassime
Win probability: 73% Aliassime · Market: -279 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Felix Auger Aliassime and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Monday. Felix Auger Aliassime is 6-4 across recent matches. Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.5% versus 68.2% on first-serve points in Aliassime's favor. Anything other than a Aliassime win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 72% Fils · Market: -346 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Monday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Botic Van De Zandschulp on hard. Arthur Fils is 8-2 across recent matches. Botic Van De Zandschulp is 7-3 across recent matches.
Arthur Fils is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fils around 72%. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 58% Fritz · Market: -142 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Monday. Taylor Fritz has won 6 of the last 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Fritz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 57% Lehecka · Market: -142 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai round of 32. Jiri Lehecka has won 8 of the last 10. Rafael Jodar has won 6 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.1% versus 69.4% on first-serve points in Lehecka's favor. Little separates them; Lehecka gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 52% Paul · Market: -144 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Tommy Paul goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Shanghai round of 32. Tommy Paul has won 7 of the last 10. Valentin Vacherot comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Paul fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Ruud
Win probability: 50% Ruud · Market: +145 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Casper Ruud against Learner Tien on hard. Casper Ruud is 6-4 across recent matches. Learner Tien comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ruud fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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