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Olbia Predictions & Picks — October 13, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · October 13, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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9 matches are on Tuesday's card at Olbia, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Laslo Djere against Michael Mmoh in the round of 32. Our calls: Mmoh over Djere, Nardi over Holmgren, Barton over Mrva, Butvilas over Kumstat, Dzumhur over Dougaz, Fearnley over Loffhagen, and 3 more.

The boldest call on the card: Mmoh over Djere — the market disagrees with us there.

Mathys Erhard vs Valentin Royer

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Valentin Royer was our 62% pick, and won 7-6 6-0.

Pick: Royer

Win probability: 62% Royer · Market: -276 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Mathys Erhard goes up against Valentin Royer in the Olbia round of 32. Valentin Royer has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Mathys Erhard has won 5 of the last 10.

Valentin Royer is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Royer around 62%. Royer should have enough here, though Erhard has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

George Loffhagen vs Jacob Fearnley

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Jacob Fearnley was our 61% pick, and won 6-1 6-3.

Pick: Fearnley

Win probability: 61% Fearnley · Market: -122 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)

Tuesday's Olbia round of 32 pits George Loffhagen against Jacob Fearnley on hard. Jacob Fearnley comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. George Loffhagen is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Jacob Fearnley is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fearnley around 61%. The edge belongs to Fearnley — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Edas Butvilas vs Jan Kumstat

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Edas Butvilas; Jan Kumstat won 7-6 7-6.

Pick: Butvilas

Win probability: 51% Butvilas · Market: -144 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Edas Butvilas goes up against Jan Kumstat in the Olbia round of 32. Edas Butvilas has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Jan Kumstat comes in at 9 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Butvilas fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Stefano Travaglia vs Viktor Durasovic

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Stefano Travaglia was our 65% pick, and won 3-6 7-5 6-3.

Pick: Travaglia

Win probability: 65% Travaglia · Market: -203 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)

Stefano Travaglia and Viktor Durasovic meet in the round of 32 at Olbia on Tuesday. Stefano Travaglia is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Viktor Durasovic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

Stefano Travaglia simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Travaglia — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

August Holmgren vs Luca Nardi

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Luca Nardi at 52% before the match, and Luca Nardi won 4-6 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Nardi

Win probability: 52% Nardi · Market: +103 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (26%)

August Holmgren and Luca Nardi meet in the round of 32 at Olbia on Tuesday. Luca Nardi is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). August Holmgren is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Luca Nardi simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nardi fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Laslo Djere vs Michael Mmoh

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Michael Mmoh at 51% before the match, and Michael Mmoh won 6-4 6-3.

Pick: MmohUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Djere the favorite; our numbers say Mmoh.

Win probability: 51% Mmoh · Market: +130 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Laslo Djere goes up against Michael Mmoh in the Olbia round of 32. Michael Mmoh is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Laslo Djere is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.

Michael Mmoh simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Djere comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mmoh fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Aziz Dougaz vs Damir Dzumhur

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Damir Dzumhur, who won 6-3 2-6 6-3.

Pick: Dzumhur

Win probability: 51% Dzumhur · Market: -127 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)

Aziz Dougaz and Damir Dzumhur meet in the round of 32 at Olbia on Tuesday. Damir Dzumhur has won 5 of the last 10. Aziz Dougaz comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dzumhur is exactly that — a lean.

Francesco Maestrelli vs Mili Poljicak

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Francesco Maestrelli at 55% before the match, and Francesco Maestrelli won 6-2 6-3.

Pick: Maestrelli

Win probability: 55% Maestrelli · Market: -142 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)

Tuesday's Olbia round of 32 pits Francesco Maestrelli against Mili Poljicak on hard. Francesco Maestrelli is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10). Mili Poljicak comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Francesco Maestrelli simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Maestrelli gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Hynek Barton vs Maxim Mrva

Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Maxim Mrva. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Barton

Win probability: 53% Barton · Market: -149 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)

Hynek Barton and Maxim Mrva meet in the round of 32 at Olbia on Tuesday. Hynek Barton has won 5 of the last 10. Maxim Mrva is 7-3 across recent matches.

Barton's 71.6% behind the first serve (against 63.7% for Mrva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Barton gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Oct 12, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.