4 matches are on Thursday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Diana Shnaider in the round of 16. Our calls: Shnaider over Eala, Jovic over Paolini, Rybakina over Kudermetova, Bencic over Kawa.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 87% Rybakina · Market: -547 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (64%)
Elena Rybakina and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 16 at Ningbo on Thursday. Elena Rybakina comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Polina Kudermetova has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 65.2% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 84% Bencic · Market: -682 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (59%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Belinda Bencic goes up against Katarzyna Kawa in the Ningbo round of 16. Belinda Bencic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Katarzyna Kawa has won 3 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.3% versus 57.8% on first-serve points in Bencic's favor. Anything other than a Bencic win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 57% Jovic · Market: -179 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Iva Jovic goes up against Jasmine Paolini in the Ningbo round of 16. Iva Jovic is 7-3 across recent matches. Jasmine Paolini comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Jovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 56% Shnaider · Market: -136 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Diana Shnaider in the Ningbo round of 16. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexandra Eala is 5-5 across recent matches.
Diana Shnaider is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shnaider around 56%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shnaider is exactly that — a lean.
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