6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Vienna, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Learner Tien in the round of 16. Our calls: Minaur over Tien, Tiafoe over Musetti, Medvedev over Aguilar, Nakashima over Griekspoor, Mensik over Mannarino, Basilashvili over Rodionov.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 69% Medvedev · Market: -287 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniel Merida Aguilar goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Vienna round of 32. Daniil Medvedev is rolling — 3 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Aguilar's 64.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Medvedev.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 62% Nakashima · Market: -185 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Tallon Griekspoor in the Vienna round of 32. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Tallon Griekspoor has won 5 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. The edge belongs to Nakashima — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 57% Minaur · Market: -107 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Vienna round of 16 pits Alex De Minaur against Learner Tien on hard. Alex De Minaur is 9-1 across recent matches. Learner Tien comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Minaur gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 55% Tiafoe · Market: -121 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Wednesday. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Musetti has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Frances Tiafoe simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Tiafoe gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Basilashvili
Win probability: 55% Basilashvili · Market: -138 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Jurij Rodionov and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Wednesday. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 7 of the last 10. Jurij Rodionov comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Basilashvili gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 72% Mensik · Market: -384 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Jakub Mensik in the Vienna round of 16. Jakub Mensik comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Mensik's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 70.3% for Mannarino) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Mannarino comes in off a compressed schedule. If Mensik plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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