Maiden.bet

Paris Predictions & Picks — November 3, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · November 3, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

Share card

13 matches are on Tuesday's card at Paris, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Casper Ruud against Rafael Jodar in the round of 32. Our calls: Paul over Rune, Tsitsipas over Tien, Rublev over Etcheverry, Berrettini over Nakashima, Djokovic over Vacherot, Cerundolo over Rinderknech, and 3 more.

The boldest call on the card: Berrettini over Nakashima — the market disagrees with us there.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Moise Kouame

Pick: Fokina

Win probability: 73% Fokina · Market: -246 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Moise Kouame meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Moise Kouame brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Fokina around 73%. Anything other than a Fokina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Novak Djokovic at 70% before the match, and Novak Djokovic won 6-7(5) 7-5 6-1.

Pick: Djokovic

Win probability: 70% Djokovic · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Novak Djokovic goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Paris round of 64. Novak Djokovic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Valentin Vacherot has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Djokovic around 70%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Djokovic.

Benjamin Bonzi vs Taylor Fritz

Unlock with Maiden Pro

Benjamin Bonzi and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Taylor Fritz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Benjamin Bonzi is 6-4 across recent matches.

Andrey Rublev vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 65% on Andrey Rublev; Tomas Martin Etcheverry won 6-4 6-7(4) 7-6(3).

Pick: Rublev

Win probability: 65% Rublev · Market: -209 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Paris round of 64. Andrey Rublev limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has dropped 6 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 71.2% for Etcheverry) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rublev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo

Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Arthur Rinderknech. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Cerundolo

Win probability: 62% Cerundolo · Market: -162 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)

Arthur Rinderknech and Francisco Cerundolo meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Francisco Cerundolo limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Arthur Rinderknech is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Francisco Cerundolo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Cerundolo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka

Pick: Lehecka

Win probability: 63% Lehecka · Market: -137 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)

Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Alex Michelsen against Jiri Lehecka on clay. Jiri Lehecka brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Alex Michelsen has won 5 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Lehecka has been winning 73.1% of first-serve points to Michelsen's 70%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Lehecka should have enough here, though Michelsen has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Holger Rune vs Tommy Paul

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Tommy Paul, who won 7-5 6-4.

Pick: Paul

Win probability: 60% Paul · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)

Holger Rune and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Holger Rune is 6-4 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Paul.

Arthur Fery vs Quentin Halys

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Quentin Halys, who won 7-6(6) 7-5.

Pick: Halys

Win probability: 60% Halys · Market: -143 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)

Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Arthur Fery against Quentin Halys on clay. Quentin Halys limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Arthur Fery is 5-5 across recent matches.

Halys's 77.6% behind the first serve (against 68.8% for Fery) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Halys is exactly that — a lean.

Learner Tien vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Pick: Tsitsipas

Win probability: 56% Tsitsipas · Market: +122 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)

Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Learner Tien against Stefanos Tsitsipas on clay. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10. Learner Tien is 4-6 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.8% versus 68.2% on first-serve points in Tsitsipas's favor. Little separates them; Tsitsipas gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Matteo Berrettini at 52% before the match, and Matteo Berrettini won 6-4 3-6 7-6(8).

Pick: BerrettiniUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Nakashima the favorite; our numbers say Berrettini.

Win probability: 52% Berrettini · Market: +145 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)

Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Brandon Nakashima against Matteo Berrettini on clay. Matteo Berrettini is 5-5 across recent matches. Brandon Nakashima has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Matteo Berrettini is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Berrettini around 52%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Berrettini is exactly that — a lean.

Arthur Gea vs Jan Lennard Struff

Unlock with Maiden Pro

Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Arthur Gea against Jan Lennard Struff on clay. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Arthur Gea is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.

Ben Shelton vs Cameron Norrie

Unlock with Maiden Pro

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Paris round of 32. Ben Shelton has won 5 of the last 10. Cameron Norrie is 4-6 across recent matches.

Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar

Unlock with Maiden Pro

Tuesday's Paris round of 32 pits Casper Ruud against Rafael Jodar on clay. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Casper Ruud comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks

Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.

Updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.