Tennis predictions, May 22, 2026: Minaur vs. Paul, Bublik vs. Tien

Friday's Hamburg semifinal pits Alex De Minaur against Tommy Paul on clay. Tommy Paul has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Alex De Minaur has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.

Alex De Minaur has had the better of this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 against Tommy Paul. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Paul — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. Paul should have enough here, though Minaur has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Learner Tien in the Geneva semifinal. Alexander Bublik has won 5 of the last 10. Learner Tien has won 6 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

Learner Tien has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Alexander Bublik. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Tien — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 77.4% versus 69.3% on first-serve points in Bublik's favor. Bublik arrives with very little recovery time; Tien comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bublik.

Friday's Strasbourg semifinal pits Ann Li against Emma Navarro on clay. Ann Li brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Emma Navarro is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

Emma Navarro leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Navarro — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Li has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Navarro's 61.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Navarro comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Li is exactly that — a lean.

Friday's Geneva semifinal pits Casper Ruud against Mariano Navone on clay. Casper Ruud has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Mariano Navone is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Navone — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 70.4% versus 62.6% on first-serve points in Ruud's favor. Ruud comes in off a compressed schedule; Navone comes in off a compressed schedule. Navone needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

It all comes down to Friday at French Open, where Hugo Dellien faces Roberto Carballes Baena for the trophy. Roberto Carballes Baena limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Hugo Dellien comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.

Roberto Carballes Baena leads the head-to-head 2-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Baena — worth more than the overall number this week.

Baena's 67% behind the first serve (against 62.3% for Dellien) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Baena fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Friday's Rabat semifinal pits Jil Teichmann against Petra Marcinko on clay. Petra Marcinko brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Jil Teichmann brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

The ledger favors Petra Marcinko, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jil Teichmann. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Marcinko — worth more than the overall number this week.

Petra Marcinko simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Teichmann comes in off a compressed schedule; Marcinko comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Marcinko gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jaqueline Cristian goes up against Victoria Mboko in the Strasbourg semifinal. Jaqueline Cristian brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten. Victoria Mboko has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

The ledger favors Victoria Mboko, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jaqueline Cristian. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mboko — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Mboko comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Cristian.

Friday brings the French Open final: Pablo Llamas Ruiz against Vilius Gaubas. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is 5-5 across recent matches. Vilius Gaubas comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Ruiz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Friday brings the French Open final: Maria Lourdes Carle against Rebecca Sramkova. Rebecca Sramkova limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Maria Lourdes Carle is 3-7 across recent matches.

Maria Lourdes Carle leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Carle — worth more than the overall number this week.

Sramkova's 61.8% behind the first serve (against 58% for Carle) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sramkova.

The French Open title is on the line on Friday, when Leandro Riedi meets Pierre Hugues Herbert. Pierre Hugues Herbert is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Leandro Riedi brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Hold strength tells the story — 73% versus 68.9% on first-serve points in Herbert's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Herbert fractionally more likely to land the big points.

The French Open title is on the line on Friday, when Darwin Blanch meets Luka Pavlovic. Luka Pavlovic is 0-10 across recent matches. Darwin Blanch comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Pavlovic has been winning 75.7% of first-serve points to Blanch's 68.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Pavlovic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

It all comes down to Friday at French Open, where Harmony Tan faces Linda Fruhvirtova for the trophy. Harmony Tan has won 3 of the last 10. Linda Fruhvirtova has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Harmony Tan simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tan is exactly that — a lean.