Cincinnati Predictions & Picks — August 16, 2026

Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Alexander Zverev against Cameron Norrie on hard. Alexander Zverev limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Cameron Norrie comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 73.3% versus 68.4% on first-serve points in Zverev's favor. Zverev should have enough here, though Norrie has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Jaime Faria in the Cincinnati round of 64. Ben Shelton brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Jaime Faria has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Shelton has been winning 74.5% of first-serve points to Faria's 71.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Shelton win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Daniil Medvedev and Marco Trungelliti meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Daniil Medvedev limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Marco Trungelliti comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Trungelliti's 67.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Trungelliti needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Aleksandar Kovacevic and Brandon Nakashima meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Brandon Nakashima has won 8 of the last 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic limps in on a 7-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

Brandon Nakashima is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Nakashima around 74%. Anything other than a Nakashima win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Christopher Oconnell in the Cincinnati round of 64. Casper Ruud comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Christopher Oconnell comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Casper Ruud simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Ruud.

Daniel Altmaier and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Lorenzo Musetti is 6-4 across recent matches. Daniel Altmaier is 5-5 across recent matches.

Lorenzo Musetti simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Joao Fonseca on hard. Joao Fonseca comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Botic Van De Zandschulp is 6-4 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Fonseca — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Learner Tien against Sebastian Baez on hard. Learner Tien comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez is 6-4 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 68% versus 64.7% on first-serve points in Tien's favor. Tien should have enough here, though Baez has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Felix Auger Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Felix Auger Aliassime has won 7 of the last 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 across recent matches.

Felix Auger Aliassime is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Aliassime around 65%. Tsitsipas comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Aliassime — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Michael Zheng and Ugo Humbert meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Ugo Humbert is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Michael Zheng is 6-4 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Humbert.

Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Andrey Rublev is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Pablo Carreno Busta has won 5 of the last 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.1% versus 68.2% on first-serve points in Rublev's favor. The edge belongs to Rublev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Alex Michelsen against Taylor Fritz on hard. Taylor Fritz is 8-2 across recent matches. Alex Michelsen is 8-2 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 70% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Little separates them; Fritz gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Francisco Cerundolo against Nuno Borges on hard. Francisco Cerundolo is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Nuno Borges is 7-3 across recent matches.

Francisco Cerundolo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cerundolo fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Adam Walton and Ignacio Buse meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Adam Walton is 6-4 across recent matches. Ignacio Buse is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

The serve is where this match separates: Walton has been winning 71.2% of first-serve points to Buse's 68.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Walton is exactly that — a lean.

Arthur Rinderknech and Juan Manuel Cerundolo meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Sunday. Arthur Rinderknech has won 4 of the last 10. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won 5 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Rinderknech has been winning 74.9% of first-serve points to Cerundolo's 67.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rinderknech fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Zizou Bergs on hard. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 8 of the last 10. Zizou Bergs has won 7 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Aguilar is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Cincinnati round of 64. Arthur Fils is 6-4 across recent matches. Yannick Hanfmann is 6-4 across recent matches.

Fils's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 70.1% for Hanfmann) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.