25 matches are on Monday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aryna Sabalenka against Camila Osorio in the first round. Our calls: Cocciaretto over Siniakova, Bejlek over Bucsa, Muchova over Kraus, Bouzkova over Jacquemot, Kalinina over Sakatsume, Sawangkaew over Udvardy, and 3 more.
The boldest call on the card: Cocciaretto over Siniakova — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Kenin
Win probability: 60% Kenin · Market: -543 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Sofia Kenin goes up against Venus Williams in the US Open first round. Sofia Kenin has won 3 of the last 10. Venus Williams limps in on a 10-match losing skid, just 0 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Kenin — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Muchova
Win probability: 76% Muchova · Market: -637 · Sets: 2 (72%) · most likely score 2-0 (57%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Karolina Muchova goes up against Sinja Kraus in the US Open first round. Karolina Muchova has won 9 of the last 10. Sinja Kraus limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 64.8% versus 59.2% on first-serve points in Muchova's favor. If Muchova plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 63% Bejlek · Market: -311 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
Monday's US Open first round pits Cristina Bucsa against Sara Bejlek on hard. Sara Bejlek has won 7 of the last 10. Cristina Bucsa is 2-8 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Bejlek — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 62% Bouzkova · Market: -653 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
Monday's US Open first round pits Elsa Jacquemot against Marie Bouzkova on hard. Marie Bouzkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Elsa Jacquemot limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Marie Bouzkova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Bouzkova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Stearns
Win probability: 61% Stearns · Market: -242 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Harriet Dart and Peyton Stearns meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Peyton Stearns is 5-5 across recent matches. Harriet Dart is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Peyton Stearns is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Stearns around 61%. The edge belongs to Stearns — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Kalinina
Win probability: 58% Kalinina · Market: -260 · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Monday's US Open first round pits Anhelina Kalinina against Himeno Sakatsume on hard. Anhelina Kalinina is 4-6 across recent matches. Himeno Sakatsume comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kalinina fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sawangkaew
Win probability: 56% Sawangkaew · Market: -151 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Mananchaya Sawangkaew and Panna Udvardy meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is 6-4 across recent matches. Panna Udvardy comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Mananchaya Sawangkaew is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sawangkaew around 56%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sawangkaew fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 55% Tagger · Market: -349 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Monday's US Open first round pits Lilli Tagger against Tamara Korpatsch on hard. Lilli Tagger limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Tamara Korpatsch has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.1% versus 58.5% on first-serve points in Tagger's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tagger is exactly that — a lean.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Aryna Sabalenka and Camila Osorio meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 across recent matches. Camila Osorio is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Anna Blinkova goes up against Anna Kalinskaya in the US Open first round. Anna Kalinskaya comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anna Blinkova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Maja Chwalinska against Taylor Townsend on hard. Taylor Townsend is 5-5 across recent matches. Maja Chwalinska is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Nadia Podoroska against Simona Waltert on hard. Nadia Podoroska has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Simona Waltert is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Amanda Anisimova against Ashlyn Krueger on hard. Amanda Anisimova is 6-4 across recent matches. Ashlyn Krueger has won 7 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Daria Snigur against Diana Shnaider on hard. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10. Daria Snigur has won 7 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Anouk Koevermans against Caty Mcnally on hard. Caty Mcnally comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anouk Koevermans comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Maria Timofeeva against Tamara Zidansek on hard. Tamara Zidansek is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Maria Timofeeva is 8-2 across recent matches.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Katie Volynets goes up against Linda Noskova in the US Open first round. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Katie Volynets has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Clara Tauson goes up against Sloane Stephens in the US Open first round. Clara Tauson comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Sloane Stephens has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Ann Li goes up against Antonia Ruzic in the US Open first round. Ann Li has won 4 of the last 10. Antonia Ruzic is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Julia Grabher and Sorana Cirstea meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Sorana Cirstea comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Julia Grabher comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Diane Parry and Viktorija Golubic meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Diane Parry has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Viktorija Golubic is 6-4 across recent matches.
Pick: CocciarettoUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Siniakova; our numbers say Cocciaretto.
Win probability: 52% Cocciaretto · Market: +170 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Katerina Siniakova meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 4-6 across recent matches. Katerina Siniakova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cocciaretto is exactly that — a lean.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Maya Joint in the US Open first round. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Maya Joint limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Emma Navarro and Lois Boisson meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Emma Navarro has won 5 of the last 10. Lois Boisson comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Kimberly Birrell goes up against Petra Marcinko in the US Open first round. Kimberly Birrell is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (2 of the last 10). Petra Marcinko limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
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