US Open Predictions & Picks — September 3, 2026

Carlos Alcaraz and Jaime Faria meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Carlos Alcaraz has won 7 of the last 10. Jaime Faria has won 6 of the last 10.

Carlos Alcaraz is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Alcaraz around 88%. Anything other than a Alcaraz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Dane Sweeny goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open round of 64. Lorenzo Musetti comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Dane Sweeny has won 4 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Musetti has been winning 69.6% of first-serve points to Sweeny's 66%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Musetti win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Alexander Blockx and Marco Trungelliti meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Alexander Blockx comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Marco Trungelliti comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.5% versus 67.3% on first-serve points in Blockx's favor. Trungelliti needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Mattia Bellucci goes up against Taylor Fritz in the US Open round of 64. Taylor Fritz has won 8 of the last 10. Mattia Bellucci comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Fritz has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Bellucci's 71.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Fritz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Flavio Cobolli and Tristan Schoolkate meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Flavio Cobolli has won 6 of the last 10. Tristan Schoolkate has won 5 of the last 10.

Flavio Cobolli is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cobolli around 71%. Cobolli should have enough here, though Schoolkate has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Jakub Mensik and Jurij Rodionov meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Jakub Mensik is 6-4 across recent matches. Jurij Rodionov is 4-6 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 76.7% versus 70.1% on first-serve points in Mensik's favor. The edge belongs to Mensik — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Felix Auger Aliassime and Karen Khachanov meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Felix Auger Aliassime comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Karen Khachanov has won 4 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Khachanov's 72%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Aliassime should have enough here, though Khachanov has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Gael Monfils against Learner Tien on hard. Learner Tien comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Gael Monfils has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

Learner Tien simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Tien should have enough here, though Monfils has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Francisco Cerundolo goes up against Jan Lennard Struff in the US Open round of 64. Francisco Cerundolo is 6-4 across recent matches. Jan Lennard Struff has won 6 of the last 10.

Francisco Cerundolo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Cerundolo should have enough here, though Struff has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Alejandro Tabilo and Alexei Popyrin meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Thursday. Alejandro Tabilo comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Alexei Popyrin has won 4 of the last 10.

Alejandro Tabilo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tabilo.

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Dalibor Svrcina against Luciano Darderi on hard. Luciano Darderi has won 6 of the last 10. Dalibor Svrcina comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 70.2% versus 63.1% on first-serve points in Darderi's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Darderi is exactly that — a lean.

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Jesper De Jong against Zizou Bergs on hard. Zizou Bergs comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jesper De Jong is 3-7 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Jong comes in off a compressed schedule; Bergs comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Bergs — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Botic Van De Zandschulp in the US Open round of 64. Alex De Minaur has won 6 of the last 10. Botic Van De Zandschulp is 7-3 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. Minaur should have enough here, though Zandschulp has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Arthur Gea against Zachary Svajda on hard. Arthur Gea brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Zachary Svajda has won 4 of the last 10.

Arthur Gea simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Svajda comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Gea — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Michael Zheng against Y. Bu on hard. Michael Zheng is 6-4 across recent matches. Y. Bu comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Zheng comes in off a compressed schedule; Bu comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zheng fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Benjamin Bonzi goes up against Ignacio Buse in the US Open round of 64. Ignacio Buse brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Benjamin Bonzi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Buse comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Buse fractionally more likely to land the big points.