8 matches are on Friday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Michelsen against Daniel Merida Aguilar in the round of 32. Our calls: Michelsen over Aguilar, Tiafoe over Vacherot, Paul over Bublik, Lehecka over Tsitsipas, Medvedev over Rinderknech, Navone over Etcheverry, and 2 more.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 78% Zverev · Market: -443 · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 3-0 (44%)
Friday's US Open round of 64 pits Alexander Zverev against Quentin Halys on hard. Alexander Zverev comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Quentin Halys comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Alexander Zverev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 85% Alcaraz · Market: -1072 · Sets: 3 (66%) · most likely score 3-0 (59%)
Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Carlos Alcaraz against Yibing Wu on hard. Carlos Alcaraz has won 7 of the last 10. Yibing Wu is 3-7 across recent matches.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Alcaraz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 63% Medvedev · Market: -256 · Sets: 4+ (56%) · most likely score 3-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the US Open round of 32. Daniil Medvedev has won 5 of the last 10. Arthur Rinderknech comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Medvedev.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 60% Lehecka · Market: -155 · Sets: 4+ (61%) · most likely score 3-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the US Open round of 32. Jiri Lehecka has won 6 of the last 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 6-4 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Lehecka.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 56% Paul · Market: -159 · Sets: 4+ (65%) · most likely score 3-0 (23%)
Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Tommy Paul has won 6 of the last 10. Alexander Bublik has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paul is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 54% Tiafoe · Market: -165 · Sets: 4+ (64%) · most likely score 3-1 (21%)
Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Frances Tiafoe against Valentin Vacherot on hard. Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10. Valentin Vacherot has won 4 of the last 10.
Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 54%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tiafoe fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 54% Michelsen · Market: -176 · Sets: 4+ (71%) · most likely score 3-1 (21%)
Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Alex Michelsen comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Merida Aguilar is 8-2 across recent matches.
Michelsen's 69.9% behind the first serve (against 64.6% for Aguilar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Michelsen gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Navone
Win probability: 50% Navone · Market: -100 · Sets: 4+ (64%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Mariano Navone goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the US Open round of 32. Mariano Navone has won 6 of the last 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 4-6 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Navone gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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