6 matches are on Thursday's card at Jinan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Shevchenko against Dylan Hara Friend Jay in the round of 16. Our calls: Shevchenko over Jay, Draxl over Ivashka, Machac over Vukic, Bellucci over Pavlovic, Cilic over Watanuki, Mochizuki over Sweeny.
Pick: Mochizuki
Win probability: 56% Mochizuki · Market: -125 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Thursday's Jinan round of 16 pits Dane Sweeny against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Shintaro Mochizuki comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Dane Sweeny is 4-6 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Mochizuki comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mochizuki fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Shevchenko
Win probability: 50% Shevchenko · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexander Shevchenko goes up against Dylan Hara Friend Jay in the Jinan round of 16. Alexander Shevchenko has won 4 of the last 10. Dylan Hara Friend Jay comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Shevchenko gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bellucci
Win probability: 62% Bellucci · Market: -309 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Luka Pavlovic and Mattia Bellucci meet in the round of 16 at Jinan on Thursday. Mattia Bellucci is 5-5 across recent matches. Luka Pavlovic is 6-4 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Pavlovic comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bellucci.
Pick: Machac
Win probability: 61% Machac · Market: -194 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Tomas Machac in the Jinan round of 16. Tomas Machac is 4-6 across recent matches. Aleksandar Vukic is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (6 of the last 10).
Tomas Machac is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Machac around 61%. Vukic comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Machac — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Draxl
Win probability: 53% Draxl · Market: -109 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Ilya Ivashka and Liam Draxl meet in the round of 16 at Jinan on Thursday. Liam Draxl is 6-4 across recent matches. Ilya Ivashka is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
Liam Draxl is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Draxl around 53%. Draxl comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Draxl fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cilic
Win probability: 65% Cilic · Market: -158 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Thursday's Jinan round of 16 pits Marin Cilic against Yosuke Watanuki on hard. Marin Cilic has won 4 of the last 10. Yosuke Watanuki is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Marin Cilic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Watanuki comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Cilic.
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