Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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16 matches are on Friday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Karolina Pliskova against Sara Bejlek in the first round. Our calls: Pliskova over Bejlek, Kessler over Mcnally, Samsonova over Putintseva, Tagger over Gibson, Golubic over Parks, Bondar over Maneiro, and 10 more.
The boldest call on the card: Oliynykova over Kalieva — the market disagrees with us there.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Caty Mcnally goes up against Mccartney Kessler in the Cincinnati first round. Mccartney Kessler comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Caty Mcnally has won 6 of the last 10.
Mccartney Kessler simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kessler fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Friday's Cincinnati first round pits Katerina Siniakova against Maria Timofeeva on hard. Katerina Siniakova is 4-6 across recent matches. Maria Timofeeva is 7-3 across recent matches.
Katerina Siniakova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Siniakova around 68%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Siniakova.
Daria Snigur and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Daria Snigur has won 6 of the last 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Daria Snigur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Snigur should have enough here, though Starodubtseva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elvina Kalieva goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Cincinnati first round. Oleksandra Oliynykova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Elvina Kalieva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Oleksandra Oliynykova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Oliynykova around 64%. The edge belongs to Oliynykova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Maya Joint goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the Cincinnati first round. Maya Joint has won 5 of the last 10. Tamara Korpatsch comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Maya Joint simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Joint gets the nod on the finest of margins.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Yulia Putintseva in the Cincinnati first round. Liudmila Samsonova has won 7 of the last 10. Yulia Putintseva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
Samsonova's 69.3% behind the first serve (against 59.8% for Putintseva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Samsonova is exactly that — a lean.
Friday's Cincinnati first round pits Anna Bondar against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro on hard. Anna Bondar has won 6 of the last 10. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has won 5 of the last 10.
Bondar's 64.5% behind the first serve (against 59.6% for Maneiro) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Bondar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Karolina Pliskova goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati first round. Karolina Pliskova has won 6 of the last 10. Sara Bejlek comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.5% versus 57.5% on first-serve points in Pliskova's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Pliskova is exactly that — a lean.
Alycia Parks and Viktorija Golubic meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Viktorija Golubic has won 6 of the last 10. Alycia Parks has won 4 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Viktorija Golubic, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Alycia Parks.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Golubic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Lucrezia Stefanini. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Lucrezia Stefanini meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 4-6 across recent matches. Lucrezia Stefanini has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 60.8% versus 55.1% on first-serve points in Cocciaretto's favor. If Cocciaretto plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Harriet Dart and Peyton Stearns meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Peyton Stearns is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10). Harriet Dart comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Peyton Stearns simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Stearns.
Anna Blinkova and Mananchaya Sawangkaew meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is 7-3 across recent matches. Anna Blinkova limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Sawangkaew has been winning 64.2% of first-serve points to Blinkova's 61.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Sawangkaew — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Cincinnati first round. Nikola Bartunkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Alina Charaeva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Bartunkova has been winning 67.8% of first-serve points to Charaeva's 63.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bartunkova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Lilli Tagger goes up against Talia Gibson in the Cincinnati first round. Lilli Tagger has won 5 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Talia Gibson has won 3 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Tagger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Emiliana Arango goes up against Venus Williams in the Cincinnati first round. Emiliana Arango limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Venus Williams limps in on a 10-match losing skid, just 0 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Arango gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sinja Kraus and Sloane Stephens meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Sinja Kraus is 4-6 across recent matches. Sloane Stephens has won 3 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kraus fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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