9 matches are on Tuesday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Brandon Nakashima against Daniil Medvedev in the round of 32. Our calls: Medvedev over Nakashima, Fils over Lehecka, Fritz over Aguilar, Rublev over Borges, Musetti over Zheng, Aliassime over Cerundolo, and 3 more.
The boldest call on the card: Walton over Faria — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 69% Paul · Market: -344 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Tommy Paul in the Cincinnati round of 32. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Daniel Vallejo has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Paul has been winning 69.4% of first-serve points to Vallejo's 64.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Paul should have enough here, though Vallejo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Fonseca
Win probability: 76% Fonseca · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Christopher Oconnell goes up against Joao Fonseca in the Cincinnati round of 32. Joao Fonseca comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Christopher Oconnell comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Fonseca plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Aliassime
Win probability: 69% Aliassime · Market: -444 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Felix Auger Aliassime against Juan Manuel Cerundolo on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Cerundolo's 67.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Aliassime — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 66% Musetti · Market: -177 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Lorenzo Musetti and Michael Zheng meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Lorenzo Musetti is 7-3 across recent matches. Michael Zheng has won 6 of the last 10.
Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 66%. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 64% Fritz · Market: -375 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Taylor Fritz on hard. Taylor Fritz is 8-2 across recent matches. Daniel Merida Aguilar is 8-2 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 64.3% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Fritz should have enough here, though Aguilar has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: WaltonUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Faria the favorite; our numbers say Walton.
Win probability: 60% Walton · Market: +132 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Adam Walton against Jaime Faria on hard. Adam Walton comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jaime Faria comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Walton fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 56% Rublev · Market: -161 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Nuno Borges in the Cincinnati round of 32. Andrey Rublev is 6-4 across recent matches. Nuno Borges has won 7 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Andrey Rublev, 5-0 across their 5 meetings with Nuno Borges. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Rublev — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 54% Medvedev · Market: -121 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Cincinnati round of 32. Daniil Medvedev is 6-4 across recent matches. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Medvedev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 58% Fils · Market: -142 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Jiri Lehecka on hard. Arthur Fils is 6-4 across recent matches. Jiri Lehecka has won 6 of the last 10.
Arthur Fils simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Fils gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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