18 matches are on Wednesday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diane Parry against Sorana Cirstea in the round of 64. Our calls: Cirstea over Parry, Fernandez over Sawangkaew, Shnaider over Pliskova, Townsend over Preston, Badosa over Kasatkina, Mcnally over Navarro, and 6 more.
The boldest call on the card: Linette over Jones — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 83% Pegula · Market: -990 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (62%)
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Jessica Pegula against Sofia Kenin on hard. Jessica Pegula comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Sofia Kenin is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kenin needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Paolini
Win probability: 82% Paolini · Market: -205 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (59%)
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Jasmine Paolini against Lucrezia Stefanini on hard. Jasmine Paolini has won 7 of the last 10. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 4 of the last 10.
Paolini's 60.4% behind the first serve (against 55% for Stefanini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Paolini plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 81% Kostyuk · Market: -565 · Sets: 2 (72%) · most likely score 2-0 (61%)
Marta Kostyuk and Sloane Stephens meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Marta Kostyuk has won 7 of the last 10. Sloane Stephens is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Kostyuk win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Karolina Muchova goes up against Katie Boulter in the US Open round of 64. Karolina Muchova is 9-1 across recent matches. Katie Boulter has won 4 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Elina Svitolina and Maya Joint meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Elina Svitolina is 7-3 across recent matches. Maya Joint comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Kimberly Birrell meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Ekaterina Alexandrova is 6-4 across recent matches. Kimberly Birrell has won 3 of the last 10.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 67% Shnaider · Market: -316 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Diana Shnaider against Karolina Pliskova on hard. Diana Shnaider comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Karolina Pliskova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Shnaider — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Townsend
Win probability: 65% Townsend · Market: -317 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Taylah Preston goes up against Taylor Townsend in the US Open round of 64. Taylor Townsend has won 6 of the last 10. Taylah Preston has won 7 of the last 10.
Townsend's 64.3% behind the first serve (against 59.3% for Preston) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Townsend should have enough here, though Preston has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 58% Cirstea · Market: -242 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Diane Parry goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the US Open round of 64. Sorana Cirstea is 5-5 across recent matches. Diane Parry is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Sorana Cirstea is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cirstea around 58%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cirstea fractionally more likely to land the big points.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Ann Li against Donna Vekic on hard. Ann Li is 5-5 across recent matches. Donna Vekic is 5-5 across recent matches.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 55% Fernandez · Market: -239 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Leylah Fernandez goes up against Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the US Open round of 64. Leylah Fernandez is 5-5 across recent matches. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is 6-4 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fernandez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mcnally
Win probability: 53% Mcnally · Market: +118 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Caty Mcnally and Emma Navarro meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Caty Mcnally has won 6 of the last 10. Emma Navarro comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Emma Navarro has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Caty Mcnally. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Navarro — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mcnally is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: SelekhmetevaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Rakhimova; our numbers say Selekhmeteva.
Win probability: 51% Selekhmeteva · Market: +164 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Kamilla Rakhimova and Oksana Selekhmeteva meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Oksana Selekhmeteva is 5-5 across recent matches. Kamilla Rakhimova is 5-5 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Selekhmeteva fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 63% Bartunkova · Market: -547 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Mayar Sherif and Nikola Bartunkova meet in the first round at US Open on Wednesday. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Mayar Sherif has won 9 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Bartunkova has been winning 68.4% of first-serve points to Sherif's 58.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Bartunkova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria meet in the first round at US Open on Wednesday. Jelena Ostapenko is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10). Tatjana Maria has won 7 of the last 10.
Pick: LinetteUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Jones the favorite; our numbers say Linette.
Win probability: 59% Linette · Market: +139 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Francesca Jones against Magda Linette on hard. Magda Linette has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Francesca Jones is rolling — 10 straight wins, 10 of 10 in recent play.
Magda Linette is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Linette around 59%. Little separates them; Linette gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 57% Badosa · Market: -112 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa meet in the first round at US Open on Wednesday. Paula Badosa has won 9 of the last 10. Daria Kasatkina is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 59.1% on first-serve points in Badosa's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Badosa fractionally more likely to land the big points.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Iva Jovic against Magdalena Frech on hard. Iva Jovic is 6-4 across recent matches. Magdalena Frech has won 4 of the last 10.
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