US Open Predictions & Picks — September 4, 2026

Friday's US Open round of 64 pits Elena Rybakina against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro on hard. Elena Rybakina has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is 5-5 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 59.5% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Kamilla Rakhimova in the US Open round of 32. Aryna Sabalenka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Kamilla Rakhimova is 6-4 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Sabalenka has been winning 67% of first-serve points to Rakhimova's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Sabalenka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Emma Navarro and Karolina Muchova meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Karolina Muchova has won 9 of the last 10. Emma Navarro has won 6 of the last 10.

Karolina Muchova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Muchova around 79%. Navarro needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jessica Pegula goes up against Leylah Fernandez in the US Open round of 32. Jessica Pegula is 8-2 across recent matches. Leylah Fernandez has won 5 of the last 10.

Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Pegula win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Ann Li and Linda Noskova meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Friday. Linda Noskova is 8-2 across recent matches. Ann Li is 5-5 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 69.3% versus 65.3% on first-serve points in Noskova's favor. The edge belongs to Noskova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Ekaterina Alexandrova against Marta Kostyuk on hard. Marta Kostyuk is 7-3 across recent matches. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 6 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kostyuk should have enough here, though Alexandrova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the US Open round of 32. Sorana Cirstea has won 6 of the last 10. Jasmine Paolini is 7-3 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cirstea is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Taylor Townsend in the US Open round of 32. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Taylor Townsend is 6-4 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Shnaider gets the nod on the finest of margins.