Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
Share card
17 matches are on Wednesday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Talia Gibson in the first round. Our calls: Gibson over Sasnovich, Kalinina over Tjen, Korneeva over Golubic, Tagger over Ruse, Mcnally over Yastremska, Sonmez over Inglis, and 11 more.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 62% on Maya Joint; Sinja Kraus won 6-3 3-6 7-5.
Pick: Joint
Win probability: 62% Joint · Market: -244 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Maya Joint goes up against Sinja Kraus in the Beijing first round. Maya Joint has won 5 of the last 10. Sinja Kraus is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Joint should have enough here, though Kraus has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Maria Timofeeva was our 62% pick, and won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Timofeeva
Win probability: 62% Timofeeva · Market: -123 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Darja Vidmanova against Maria Timofeeva on hard. Maria Timofeeva brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Darja Vidmanova has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Timofeeva — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Win probability: 61% Frech · Market: -194 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Magdalena Frech goes up against Petra Marcinko in the Beijing first round. Magdalena Frech has won 5 of the last 10. Petra Marcinko has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Magdalena Frech is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Frech around 61%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Frech.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Anna Bondar at 61%, but Renata Zarazua won 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Bondar
Win probability: 61% Bondar · Market: -226 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anna Bondar goes up against Renata Zarazua in the Beijing first round. Anna Bondar is 5-5 across recent matches. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.
Bondar's 64.4% behind the first serve (against 57.2% for Zarazua) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bondar.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Taylah Preston at 61% before the match, and Taylah Preston won 6-2 7-6.
Pick: Preston
Win probability: 61% Preston · Market: -183 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Tamara Korpatsch and Taylah Preston meet in the first round at Beijing on Wednesday. Taylah Preston is 7-3 across recent matches. Tamara Korpatsch is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Preston.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Caty Mcnally at 58%, but Dayana Yastremska won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Mcnally
Win probability: 58% Mcnally · Market: -194 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Caty Mcnally against Dayana Yastremska on hard. Caty Mcnally comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Dayana Yastremska is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mcnally fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Win probability: 56% Kudermetova · Market: -187 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Mayar Sherif and Polina Kudermetova meet in the first round at Beijing on Wednesday. Polina Kudermetova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Mayar Sherif has dropped 2 straight and sits at 8-2 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 64.8% versus 58.6% on first-serve points in Kudermetova's favor. Little separates them; Kudermetova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Win probability: 54% Korneeva · Market: -156 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Alina Korneeva against Viktorija Golubic on hard. Alina Korneeva has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall. Viktorija Golubic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Korneeva has been winning 63.8% of first-serve points to Golubic's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Korneeva is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Lilli Tagger at 52%, but Elena Gabriela Ruse won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 52% Tagger · Market: -115 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Elena Gabriela Ruse against Lilli Tagger on hard. Lilli Tagger comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Elena Gabriela Ruse comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tagger is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Yue Yuan, who won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Yuan
Win probability: 52% Yuan · Market: -176 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Oleksandra Oliynykova goes up against Yue Yuan in the Beijing first round. Yue Yuan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Oleksandra Oliynykova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Yuan has been winning 61.9% of first-serve points to Oliynykova's 57.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Yuan is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Anhelina Kalinina at 50% lost to Janice Tjen (2-6 7-5 6-4).
Pick: Kalinina
Win probability: 50% Kalinina · Market: +103 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Anhelina Kalinina against Janice Tjen on hard. Anhelina Kalinina comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Janice Tjen has won 4 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Kalinina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Viktorija Golubic at 67% before the match, and Viktorija Golubic won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Golubic
Win probability: 67% Golubic · Market: -170 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Elvina Kalieva against Viktorija Golubic on hard. Viktorija Golubic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Elvina Kalieva is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (1 of the last 10).
Viktorija Golubic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Golubic around 67%. The edge belongs to Golubic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Magdalena Frech at 62% before the match, and Magdalena Frech won 7-5 3-6 6-4.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 62% Frech · Market: -227 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elsa Jacquemot goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Beijing first round. Magdalena Frech comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Elsa Jacquemot has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Frech.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Daria Snigur was our 61% pick, and won 3-6 6-4 7-5.
Pick: Snigur
Win probability: 61% Snigur · Market: -508 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Wednesday's Beijing first round pits Daria Snigur against Katarzyna Kawa on hard. Daria Snigur limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Katarzyna Kawa is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 60.9% versus 57.5% on first-serve points in Snigur's favor. Snigur should have enough here, though Kawa has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 61% on Katie Boulter, who won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 61% Boulter · Market: -219 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Katie Boulter and Mai Hontama meet in the first round at Beijing on Wednesday. Katie Boulter has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Mai Hontama has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.5% versus 58.3% on first-serve points in Boulter's favor. Boulter should have enough here, though Hontama has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Zeynep Sonmez at 57%, but Maddison Inglis won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 57% Sonmez · Market: -178 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Maddison Inglis goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Beijing first round. Zeynep Sonmez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Maddison Inglis is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sonmez fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 52% on Talia Gibson; Aliaksandra Sasnovich won 6-1 6-4.
Pick: Gibson
Win probability: 52% Gibson · Market: -111 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Talia Gibson meet in the first round at Beijing on Wednesday. Talia Gibson is 5-5 across recent matches. Aliaksandra Sasnovich has won 3 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 64.4% versus 60.5% on first-serve points in Gibson's favor. Little separates them; Gibson gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.