9 matches are on Thursday's card at Chengdu, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Denis Shapovalov against Tallon Griekspoor in the round of 32. Our calls: Shapovalov over Griekspoor, Harris over Kovacevic, Sonego over Duckworth, Hurkacz over Shevchenko, Shang over Mannarino, Kecmanovic over Basilashvili, and 3 more.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 68% Hurkacz · Market: -452 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Alexander Shevchenko and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the round of 32 at Chengdu on Thursday. Hubert Hurkacz is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexander Shevchenko is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Hurkacz has been winning 75.9% of first-serve points to Shevchenko's 69.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 66% Borges · Market: -398 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Nuno Borges on hard. Nuno Borges comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Borges has been winning 71.4% of first-serve points to Carabelli's 66.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Borges — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 64% Cerundolo · Market: -189 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Yi Zhou on hard. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Yi Zhou comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cerundolo around 64%. The edge belongs to Cerundolo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Shang
Win probability: 54% Shang · Market: -205 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Juncheng Shang in the Chengdu round of 32. Juncheng Shang has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shang is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 53% Sonego · Market: -129 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when James Duckworth goes up against Lorenzo Sonego in the Chengdu round of 32. Lorenzo Sonego has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. James Duckworth limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 52% Shapovalov · Market: -129 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Denis Shapovalov against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Denis Shapovalov is 7-3 across recent matches. Tallon Griekspoor is 4-6 across recent matches.
Denis Shapovalov is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shapovalov around 52%. Little separates them; Shapovalov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Damm
Win probability: 62% Damm · Market: -184 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Martin Damm against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Martin Damm is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Shintaro Mochizuki has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Damm has been winning 77.3% of first-serve points to Mochizuki's 67.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Damm should have enough here, though Mochizuki has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kecmanovic
Win probability: 58% Kecmanovic · Market: -156 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Miomir Kecmanovic and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 32 at Chengdu on Thursday. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Nikoloz Basilashvili is 5-5 across recent matches.
Miomir Kecmanovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kecmanovic around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kecmanovic is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 51% Harris · Market: -175 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aleksandar Kovacevic goes up against Lloyd Harris in the Chengdu round of 32. Lloyd Harris is 5-5 across recent matches. Aleksandar Kovacevic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Lloyd Harris simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Harris is exactly that — a lean.
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