Shanghai Predictions & Picks — October 8, 2026

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Kimmer Coppejans goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Shanghai first round. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10. Kimmer Coppejans has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.8% versus 64% on first-serve points in Tsitsipas's favor. Coppejans needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Hubert Hurkacz against James Duckworth on hard. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. James Duckworth has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 75.9% versus 72.2% on first-serve points in Hurkacz's favor. Hurkacz should have enough here, though Duckworth has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Juan Manuel Cerundolo goes up against Nicolas Mejia in the Shanghai first round. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Nicolas Mejia limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Cerundolo should have enough here, though Mejia has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Facundo Diaz Acosta and Nuno Borges meet in the first round at Shanghai on Thursday. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10. Facundo Diaz Acosta comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 71.4% versus 67.5% on first-serve points in Borges's favor. The edge belongs to Borges — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Cameron Norrie and Dalibor Svrcina meet in the first round at Shanghai on Thursday. Cameron Norrie is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10). Dalibor Svrcina is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Norrie's 68.4% behind the first serve (against 63.1% for Svrcina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Norrie.

Vit Kopriva and Zizou Bergs meet in the first round at Shanghai on Thursday. Zizou Bergs limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Vit Kopriva has won 3 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Bergs has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Kopriva's 66.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bergs.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Camilo Ugo Carabelli goes up against Ilia Simakin in the Shanghai first round. Ilia Simakin is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Camilo Ugo Carabelli limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

Simakin's 73.4% behind the first serve (against 66.2% for Carabelli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Simakin fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Jaume Munar against Jenson Brooksby on hard. Jaume Munar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Jenson Brooksby comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Munar is exactly that — a lean.

Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Pavel Kotov against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Tallon Griekspoor limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Pavel Kotov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Griekspoor has been winning 73.3% of first-serve points to Kotov's 70.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Griekspoor gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Hamad Medjedovic against Thiago Agustin Tirante on hard. Thiago Agustin Tirante comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Hamad Medjedovic has won 4 of the last 10.

Thiago Agustin Tirante simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tirante is exactly that — a lean.

Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi meet in the first round at Shanghai on Thursday. Matteo Arnaldi has won 3 of the last 10. Bernard Tomic is 7-3 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Arnaldi is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Mariano Navone goes up against Pablo Carreno Busta in the Shanghai first round. Mariano Navone is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Pablo Carreno Busta limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Navone gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Fabian Marozsan goes up against Zachary Svajda in the Shanghai first round. Fabian Marozsan has won 5 of the last 10. Zachary Svajda is 3-7 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Marozsan fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Botic Van De Zandschulp and Daniel Merida Aguilar meet in the first round at Shanghai on Thursday. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 7 of the last 10. Botic Van De Zandschulp limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aguilar fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Marcos Giron against Sebastian Baez on hard. Sebastian Baez has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Marcos Giron is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10).

Sebastian Baez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Baez around 52%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Baez fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Jan Lennard Struff and Martin Landaluce meet in the first round at Shanghai on Thursday. Jan Lennard Struff is 4-6 across recent matches. Martin Landaluce has won 3 of the last 10.

Struff's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 70.3% for Landaluce) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Struff fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Daniel Vallejo against Valentin Royer on hard. Daniel Vallejo has won 4 of the last 10. Valentin Royer is 6-4 across recent matches.

Vallejo's 65.2% behind the first serve (against 26.2% for Royer) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Vallejo fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Luca Van Assche goes up against Y. Bu in the Shanghai first round. Y. Bu has won 6 of the last 10. Luca Van Assche has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Bu's 72% behind the first serve (against 66.4% for Assche) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bu fractionally more likely to land the big points.