24 matches are on Wednesday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Michelsen against Brandon Nakashima in the round of 64. Our calls: Nakashima over Michelsen, Shelton over Hurkacz, Rublev over Aguilar, Shapovalov over Assche, Rinderknech over Munar, Zverev over Sonego, and 11 more.
The boldest call on the card: Marozsan over Zheng — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 69% Zverev · Market: -903 · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 3-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Lorenzo Sonego in the US Open first round. Alexander Zverev is 7-3 across recent matches. Lorenzo Sonego is 5-5 across recent matches.
Alexander Zverev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Zverev should have enough here, though Sonego has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Alexander Bublik in the US Open round of 64. Alexander Bublik comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 70% Tiafoe · Market: -313 · Sets: 4+ (53%) · most likely score 3-0 (34%)
Frances Tiafoe and Rei Sakamoto meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10. Rei Sakamoto comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Frances Tiafoe simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Tiafoe — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Dino Prizmic against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul is 6-4 across recent matches. Dino Prizmic has won 7 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Kamil Majchrzak and Valentin Vacherot meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Valentin Vacherot has won 4 of the last 10. Kamil Majchrzak has won 4 of the last 10.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 62% Shelton · Market: -214 · Sets: 4+ (62%) · most likely score 3-0 (25%)
Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Ben Shelton is 8-2 across recent matches. Hubert Hurkacz has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 62%. The edge belongs to Shelton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Mariano Navone against Matteo Berrettini on hard. Matteo Berrettini is 7-3 across recent matches. Mariano Navone has won 6 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Lloyd Harris goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the US Open round of 64. Stefanos Tsitsipas comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lloyd Harris is 5-5 across recent matches.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 58% Nakashima · Market: -179 · Sets: 4+ (59%) · most likely score 3-0 (25%)
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Alex Michelsen against Brandon Nakashima on hard. Brandon Nakashima has won 8 of the last 10. Alex Michelsen is 7-3 across recent matches.
Nakashima's 74.5% behind the first serve (against 69.9% for Michelsen) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Nakashima is exactly that — a lean.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Jiri Lehecka and Toby Samuel meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Jiri Lehecka has won 6 of the last 10. Toby Samuel comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Pick: Etcheverry
Win probability: 54% Etcheverry · Market: -125 · Sets: 4+ (69%) · most likely score 3-1 (21%)
Jacob Fearnley and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Tomas Martin Etcheverry comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Jacob Fearnley is 8-2 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Etcheverry gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 53% Rublev · Market: -130 · Sets: 4+ (66%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open round of 64. Andrey Rublev has won 7 of the last 10. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 7 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Rublev has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Aguilar's 64.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rublev fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 53% Shapovalov · Market: -140 · Sets: 4+ (70%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Denis Shapovalov goes up against Luca Van Assche in the US Open round of 64. Denis Shapovalov is 7-3 across recent matches. Luca Van Assche comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Shapovalov has been winning 74.7% of first-serve points to Assche's 66.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Shapovalov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rinderknech
Win probability: 51% Rinderknech · Market: -152 · Sets: 4+ (66%) · most likely score 3-0 (19%)
Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Arthur Rinderknech against Jaume Munar on hard. Arthur Rinderknech comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Jaume Munar has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Rinderknech has been winning 74.9% of first-serve points to Munar's 68.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rinderknech is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Wu
Win probability: 50% Wu · Market: -137 · Sets: 4+ (71%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when James Duckworth goes up against Yibing Wu in the US Open round of 64. Yibing Wu comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. James Duckworth brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Wu fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Buse
Win probability: 55% Buse · Market: -149 · Sets: 4+ (71%) · most likely score 3-1 (22%)
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Ignacio Buse against Marcos Giron on hard. Ignacio Buse brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Marcos Giron limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Ignacio Buse is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Buse around 55%. Little separates them; Buse gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 65% Minaur · Market: -1278 · Sets: 3 (55%) · most likely score 3-0 (38%)
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Alex De Minaur against Andrea Guerrieri on hard. Alex De Minaur has won 6 of the last 10. Andrea Guerrieri is 6-4 across recent matches.
Minaur's 69% behind the first serve (against 65.5% for Guerrieri) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 76% Jodar · Market: -800 · Sets: 4+ (55%) · most likely score 3-0 (36%)
Rafael Jodar and Y. Bu meet in the first round at US Open on Wednesday. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Y. Bu is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Bu needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 60% Zandschulp · Market: -310 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-1 (23%)
Botic Van De Zandschulp and Jan Choinski meet in the first round at US Open on Wednesday. Botic Van De Zandschulp is 6-4 across recent matches. Jan Choinski limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Zandschulp has been winning 72% of first-serve points to Choinski's 69%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Zandschulp is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Bonzi
Win probability: 54% Bonzi · Market: -189 · Sets: 4+ (69%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alex Molcan goes up against Benjamin Bonzi in the US Open first round. Benjamin Bonzi has won 6 of the last 10. Alex Molcan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 65.5% on first-serve points in Bonzi's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bonzi is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: MarozsanUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Zheng the favorite; our numbers say Marozsan.
Win probability: 51% Marozsan · Market: +148 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Fabian Marozsan against Michael Zheng on hard. Fabian Marozsan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Michael Zheng is 6-4 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Marozsan gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: AltmaierUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Svajda the favorite; our numbers say Altmaier.
Win probability: 50% Altmaier · Market: +139 · Sets: 4+ (68%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Daniel Altmaier against Zachary Svajda on hard. Daniel Altmaier is 5-5 across recent matches. Zachary Svajda has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 68% Bergs · Market: -1071 · Sets: 4+ (60%) · most likely score 3-0 (29%)
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Carlos Taberner against Zizou Bergs on hard. Zizou Bergs is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Carlos Taberner is 5-5 across recent matches.
Bergs's 72.7% behind the first serve (against 65.1% for Taberner) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bergs.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Wednesday's US Open first round pits Francesco Passaro against Jesper De Jong on hard. Jesper De Jong is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Francesco Passaro has won 4 of the last 10.
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