Tokyo Predictions & Picks — October 1, 2026

Daniel Vallejo and Rafael Jodar meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Thursday. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Daniel Vallejo is 4-6 across recent matches.

Jodar's 69.5% behind the first serve (against 65.2% for Vallejo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jodar.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Carlos Alcaraz in the Tokyo round of 32. Carlos Alcaraz is 8-2 across recent matches. Alex Michelsen is 7-3 across recent matches.

Carlos Alcaraz is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Alcaraz around 70%. Alcaraz should have enough here, though Michelsen has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Denis Shapovalov and Sho Shimabukuro meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Thursday. Denis Shapovalov has won 6 of the last 10. Sho Shimabukuro is 2-8 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 71% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shapovalov.

Thursday's Tokyo round of 32 pits Jaume Munar against Taylor Fritz on hard. Taylor Fritz limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Jaume Munar has won 6 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Fritz has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Munar's 68.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fritz.

Thursday's Tokyo round of 32 pits Frances Tiafoe against Kei Nishikori on hard. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10. Kei Nishikori comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Tiafoe's 72.1% behind the first serve (against 68.4% for Nishikori) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Nishikori has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's Tokyo round of 32 pits Casper Ruud against Luciano Darderi on hard. Casper Ruud brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Casper Ruud leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

Casper Ruud simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Ruud should have enough here, though Darderi has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Brandon Nakashima and Ugo Humbert meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Thursday. Brandon Nakashima is 7-3 across recent matches. Ugo Humbert limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Nakashima should have enough here, though Humbert has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's Tokyo round of 32 pits Arthur Fery against Lorenzo Musetti on hard. Lorenzo Musetti comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Arthur Fery comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Lorenzo Musetti simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Musetti is exactly that — a lean.

Holger Rune and Kyrian Jacquet meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Thursday. Holger Rune brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Kyrian Jacquet has won 4 of the last 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rune fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Berrettini meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Thursday. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Matteo Berrettini has won 6 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fokina is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Zizou Bergs in the Tokyo round of 32. Jiri Lehecka has won 7 of the last 10. Zizou Bergs has won 4 of the last 10.

Jiri Lehecka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Lehecka around 64%. Lehecka should have enough here, though Bergs has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Tokyo round of 32. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 across recent matches. Tomas Martin Etcheverry limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Tsitsipas's 74.8% behind the first serve (against 71.2% for Etcheverry) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tsitsipas is exactly that — a lean.

Arthur Fery and Jaime Faria meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Thursday. Arthur Fery has won 6 of the last 10. Jaime Faria is 6-4 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fery fractionally more likely to land the big points.