27 matches are on Monday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Fils against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round. Our calls: Fils over Tsitsipas, Shelton over Griekspoor, Rublev over Cilic, Rublev over Virtanen, Vacherot over Kovacevic, Bublik over Wolf.
Pick: Bublik
Win probability: 71% Bublik · Market: -210 · Sets: 3 (54%) · most likely score 3-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against J J Wolf in the US Open first round. Alexander Bublik is 6-4 across recent matches. J J Wolf has won 2 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Bublik has been winning 77.7% of first-serve points to Wolf's 72.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Bublik should have enough here, though Wolf has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 65% Fils · Market: -342 · Sets: 4+ (50%) · most likely score 3-0 (36%)
Monday's US Open first round pits Arthur Fils against Stefanos Tsitsipas on hard. Arthur Fils brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.
Pick: Vacherot
Win probability: 58% Vacherot · Market: -105 · Sets: 4+ (65%) · most likely score 3-1 (22%)
Aleksandar Kovacevic and Valentin Vacherot meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Valentin Vacherot limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Valentin Vacherot is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Vacherot around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vacherot is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 56% Rublev · Market: -263 · Sets: 4+ (62%) · most likely score 3-0 (25%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Marin Cilic in the US Open first round. Andrey Rublev is 6-4 across recent matches. Marin Cilic has won 4 of the last 10.
Andrey Rublev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rublev around 56%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rublev fractionally more likely to land the big points.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Damir Dzumhur goes up against Hubert Hurkacz in the US Open first round. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Damir Dzumhur has won 6 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Brandon Nakashima against Sebastian Baez on hard. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez has won 6 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when James Duckworth goes up against Matteo Arnaldi in the US Open first round. James Duckworth brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Matteo Arnaldi has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard against Jurij Rodionov on hard. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10). Jurij Rodionov has won 3 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Roman Safiullin in the US Open first round. Carlos Alcaraz has won 7 of the last 10. Roman Safiullin has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Harry Wendelken against Luciano Darderi on hard. Luciano Darderi comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Harry Wendelken is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (1 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Matteo Berrettini and Stan Wawrinka meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Matteo Berrettini comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Stan Wawrinka comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Juncheng Shang goes up against Marco Trungelliti in the US Open first round. Juncheng Shang is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Marco Trungelliti is 4-6 across recent matches.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Dalibor Svrcina against Valentin Royer on hard. Valentin Royer is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Dalibor Svrcina limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Alexander Blockx and Tomas Barrios Vera meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Alexander Blockx comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Tomas Barrios Vera has dropped 7 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Alejandro Tabilo and Yannick Hanfmann meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Alejandro Tabilo comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Yannick Hanfmann comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jakub Mensik goes up against Shintaro Mochizuki in the US Open first round. Jakub Mensik is 6-4 across recent matches. Shintaro Mochizuki has won 6 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Karen Khachanov goes up against Roman Andres Burruchaga in the US Open first round. Karen Khachanov has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Roman Andres Burruchaga is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alexei Popyrin goes up against Grigor Dimitrov in the US Open first round. Grigor Dimitrov limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Alexei Popyrin comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Learner Tien and Nuno Borges meet in the first round at US Open on Monday. Learner Tien is 6-4 across recent matches. Nuno Borges is 7-3 across recent matches.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Facundo Diaz Acosta goes up against Quentin Halys in the US Open first round. Quentin Halys limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Facundo Diaz Acosta has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Felix Auger Aliassime against Rinky Hijikata on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime has won 7 of the last 10. Rinky Hijikata has won 4 of the last 10.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 61% Shelton · Market: -531 · Sets: 4+ (55%) · most likely score 3-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Tallon Griekspoor in the US Open first round. Ben Shelton has won 8 of the last 10. Tallon Griekspoor is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 57% Rublev · Market: -416 · Sets: 4+ (55%) · most likely score 3-0 (26%)
Monday's US Open first round pits Andrey Rublev against Otto Virtanen on hard. Andrey Rublev is 6-4 across recent matches. Otto Virtanen limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Andrey Rublev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Federico Cina in the US Open first round. Alex Michelsen comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Federico Cina has won 4 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Adrian Mannarino against Thiago Agustin Tirante on hard. Thiago Agustin Tirante is 8-2 across recent matches. Adrian Mannarino is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Jacob Fearnley against Martin Landaluce on hard. Jacob Fearnley comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Martin Landaluce limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's US Open first round pits Aleksandar Vukic against Rei Sakamoto on hard. Aleksandar Vukic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Rei Sakamoto comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
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